I commit myself to doing one mock draft per season and only one mock draft. Some years that mock draft has come early in the pre-draft process, while other years, it has come on draft day. Today is the league’s lucky day: two days before the draft.
As I made my way around the league over the past couple of weeks, asking teams their thoughts on the upcoming season, it was only natural to ask them about the draft. Some teams were very open to discussing their draft insight with me, Dale Walters, while others chose to take the humor route, telling me basically to get lost. Nevertheless, I believe that through my pre-draft process with each team, I was able to gather enough information to make a solid educated guess on where and how I see the first round of Sunday’s draft going.
Pick #1 | Anchorage Commandos
The Commandos have their pick of the liter, so to speak. The Commandos will pick first for the first time in franchise history. God knows the franchise could use it. Since 2017, the Commandos have posted a 35-49 record, qualifying for the postseason only twice. They have been historically bad in division play, winning only six games in 24 tries since 2019. Luckily for Commando fans, the league is switching up the divisions in 2023, and maybe that lottery luck they had back in May will translate to a great draft and their third winning season.
Looking at their draft history, the Commandos have gone running back every single year since 2018. While I would love to see the team buck that trend this year, with Justin Jefferson sitting at the top of the board, I feel the brain trust up in Alaska will be too tempted to not take a running back at the top selection. With that in mind, I have the Commandos shocking the league and taking RB Christian McCaffery over Ja’marr Chase and Jettas.
Pick #2 | Montana Wombats
Tim and Tony Longwood have historically been very good at what they do during the draft; it just hasn’t translated to long-term success come playoff time. In my interview with the Longwood Brothers, Tony was shocked to hear that over the last two seasons, the Wombats have not only fielded the worst defense in the league, but they did so in historic fashion. “We have been bent over,” Tony said to me. The Wombats enter a crucial crossroads in their franchise history, and the direction of this franchise moving forward begins with the second overall pick.
If the Wombats had a good season last year, making the playoffs and then receiving some lottery luck, I could very easily see Tim and Tony trying to trade down out of this spot. However, they missed the playoffs the last two seasons, and Coach Barry Smawock will need to do more than just make the playoffs in 2023. As a result, there is no way the Wombats can trade down, not after Anchorage leaves Justin Jefferson sitting there at #2. With the second overall pick, I have the Wombats taking the best player in the draft, a guy the team can rely on week in and week out.
Pick #3 | El Paso Red Devils
The Red Devils were the last team in last December, edging out the Wombats in a crazy tiebreaking scenario. While it is a feel-good story, making the playoffs, fans in El Paso are itching for long-term success. Since their inception in 2019, the Devils have gone every other year in regard to the playoffs. If that trend continues, it will likely be another non-playoff year for El Paso. When asked about the conservative mindset in regard to free-agent acquisitions and team building, Owner Ben Pauli recognized the team’s modest approach; he doesn’t like it. He told me to write it down, “El Paso will have a historic championship season.”
If that historic championship run is to come, the Devils will need some star power on their team. Running backs are the safe pick this high in the draft. However, a new era has begun with Justin Jefferson and Ja’marr Chase leading the way. For the third year in a row, Chase will play for the Red Devils. He helped them to the playoffs last season. Will he help them go even further in 2023?
Pick #4 | Seattle Leathernecks
It’s rare to see the Leathernecks drafting this high. In fact, it has only occurred one other time in their franchise’s 9-year history. In 2016 they drafted second overall, taking OBJ. The Leathernecks understand they are in rare company in this year’s draft. They know they have a key opportunity to solidify themselves with one of the league’s top talents. They know exactly what they will do, even if GM George Michael says he doesn’t know.
In their draft history, the Leathernecks have only taken one running back in the first round (Josh Jacobs, 2020). Seattle loves their wide receivers, and they love to get as many as they can. While they could easily go after a running back like Austin Ekler in this spot, I don’t see the team drafting Ekler. I don’t see Seattle taking a WR here as well unless Chase or Jefferson somehow fall to #4. In this spot, I see Seattle bucking their draft trend and drafting Superstar Tight End Travis Kelce here, securing themselves with the top TE in this year’s draft, a TE who is basically a WR, so he fits Seattle’s mold.
Pick #5 | Austin Oilers
The Oilers have been a perennial playoff team but have never mustered to make it out of the first round. As a result of this, the Oilers have fired their coach from last season, opting to go for a guy who “has that dawg in him.” The Oilers need to win a playoff game. If not, the media, like myself, will continue to harass them until they do.
A new regime is beginning in Austin, but that doesn’t mean a new trend will occur. Since 2018, the Oilers have used their 1st Round Pick on a running back four of five times. I see this continuing in 2023, with the Oilers reuniting themselves with Chargers Running Back Austin Ekler. Ekeler is a lock for double-digit tuddies.
Pick #6 | Des Moines Metro Raiders
The Raiders had a down year in 2022, missing out on the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Some could blame the quarterback play of Geno Smith; others could blame the GM for stupidly spending all the team’s FAAB by Week 6. For me, I put the blame on First Round Running Back Najee Harris. Harris looked like he was a safe pick, a pick many compared to RB Le’Veon Bell back in the day. However, Harris struggled in 2022, like many Pittsburgh Steelers. He was unstartable for most of the year, and that may have been the downfall of the Raiders last season.
Turning over a new leaf, the Raiders go into draft season holding the sixth overall pick. Saquon Barkley is the top player on many team’s boards, but he may bring just as much risk as Harris. Not wanting a duplicate of last season, I have the Raiders taking an explosive player here. I have them taking WR Tyreek Hill, who will always be startable.
Pick #7 | Moscow Black Bears
Moscow is the new home of the Las Vegas Razorbacks and the Miami Gamecocks. While Moscow acknowledges a deep-rooted history in the NAFC between the two franchises, the Black Bears know that they must focus on the future and better things ahead. The Black Bears want a fresh start and a fast start in their return and rebirth in this league.
Looking at the draft history of both the Razorbacks and the Gamecocks, the franchise tends to lean on running backs in the first round; they have done so four times since 2018. I see them doing a similar approach on Sunday, and I see them being torn between the top two backs on the board; Saquon or Bijan? Bijan has the upside but is unproven. Saquon has the injury history, but there is no doubt he is the bell cow in this backfield. Playing it safe, I have Moscow selecting Saquon Barkley with their first pick in 2023.
Pick #8 | Los Angeles USMC
The Marines are set up for a great year in 2023, so they could go any direction here at 8. With numerous picks in the top 70, USMC has ensured that whoever they pick, that player doesn’t need to be the team’s Superman.
In their draft history, USMC has leaned toward running backs the last three seasons (Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook). For 2023, however, I see Los Angeles drafting the hometown kid. I see them selecting 2023 NAFC MVP Cooper Kupp. A kid with PPR gold potential.
Pick #9 | Burlington Boss Hogs
The Hogs impressed everyone in their inaugural season, falling one point short of a Yuma Bowl berth. The year before, 2021, Owner Jacob Lange impressed again in reserve duty in Las Vegas. Lange acknowledges the momentum his franchise has created not just in the city of Burlington, Vermont, but the entire NAFC. He knows that all eyes will be on his team in 2023 to see if the Hogs are legit or pretenders.
With the pressure on, Jacob Lange could go a few different directions at #9. We are at a point in the draft where a team may be paying a first-round price on a second-round player. Lange has a history of taking a wide receiver with his first pick, but I see the opportunity to be too tempting here. I have Burlington taking Derrick Henry, a solid top 5 running back.
Pick #10 | Albuquerque Roadrunners (via California Rebels)
The Roadrunners made the playoffs for the first time since 2019 last season and the first under the Roadrunner’s name. ABQ drafted well last season, grabbing players like Cooper Kupp, Joe Burrow, and Rookie Breece Hall. However, the injury bug forced ABQ to become sellers in what could have been a magical year.
Selling was too bad, however. The Roadrunners picked up an additional first-round pick from the Yuma Bowl Champion California Rebels. It may have hurt seeing the Rebels win the title with ABQ players, but come draft night, that will be a distant memory. With the first of their two back-to-back picks, I have ABQ taking Bijan Robinson. A rookie with as much, if not more, hype than Ezkiel Elliot in 2016. If the hype is real, Robinson has the potential to carry ABQ to the title just like Elliot did for Cincinnati in Yuma Bowl VIII.
Pick #11 | Albuquerque Roadrunners
With their second pick in as many picks, I have the Roadrunners opting out of the running back stack. With their eleventh overall pick, I have the Roadrunners taking WR Stefon Diggs. Diggs will compliment Robinson just fine. ABQ is set for 2023.
Pick #12 | Atlantic City Aces
Antonio Brown is off the Ace’s draft board this year, despite their love-affection with him ten years ago. In their first season back in the league, the Atlantic City Aces understand that expectations are high. Atlantic Citians want and expect a winning football team. Aces’ Owner, Addison Ross, sees winning as the only option. He returns to the league looking to improve his 59% winning percentage, and that begins on draft night.
Having the last pick in the first round has its pros and cons. The con is obvious, you pick last. The pro, however, is that you have back-to-back picks. The Aces could play it safe, but that doesn’t fit Ross’s attitude and mindset. With the last pick in the first round of the 2023 NAFC Draft, I have the Aces selecting Yuma Bowl XIV MVP Davante Adams. Adams may have a questionable QB in Jimmy Garoppolo, but if Adam’s proved anything in last year’s Yuma Bowl, it doesn’t matter who is throwing him the ball, he will put up god-like numbers. Take Adams.
